#!/usr/bin/env python3 """ PolyTrue MM — Automated market maker for Turbo. Strategy: - Fetches live BTC price from the backend (Pyth-sourced) - Calculates YES probability based on price vs strike - Quotes a fixed spread around the midpoint - Auto-refreshes quotes every 2 seconds - Detects fills and tracks P&L - Auto-rotates when market changes Usage: python3 mm/polytruemm.py --wallet 0xYOUR_MM_WALLET python3 mm/polytruemm.py --wallet 0xYOUR_MM_WALLET --spread 8 --size 5 Controls: Ctrl+C to stop (cancels all orders on exit) """ import argparse import math import signal import sys import time sys.path.insert(0, sys.path[0]) from turbo_client import TurboClient PRICE_SCALE = 1_000_000 def calc_probability(btc_price: float, strike: float, seconds_remaining: int) -> float: """ Calculate YES probability using normal CDF approximation. Based on deviation from strike relative to expected volatility. """ if seconds_remaining <= 0 or strike <= 0: return 0.5 # BTC daily vol ~3%, scale to remaining time daily_vol = 0.03 seconds_in_day = 86400 vol = daily_vol * math.sqrt(seconds_remaining / seconds_in_day) if vol < 0.0001: return 0.99 if btc_price >= strike else 0.01 deviation = (btc_price - strike) / strike z = deviation / vol # Fast normal CDF approximation t = 1.0 / (1.0 + 0.2316419 * abs(z)) d = 0.3989422804 * math.exp(-z * z / 2) p = 1.0 - d * t * (0.3193815 + t * (-0.3565638 + t * (1.781478 + t * (-1.821256 + t * 1.330274)))) if z < 0: p = 1.0 - p return max(0.02, min(0.98, p)) def main(): parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="PolyTrue MM for Turbo") parser.add_argument("--wallet", required=True, help="MM wallet address") parser.add_argument("--key", required=True, help="MM wallet private key (for EIP-712 signing)") parser.add_argument("--spread", type=int, default=6, help="Full spread in cents (default: 6)") parser.add_argument("--size", type=float, default=1.0, help="Size per side in USDC (default: 1)") parser.add_argument("--url", default="http://localhost:8080", help="Backend URL") args = parser.parse_args() client = TurboClient(args.wallet, args.url, private_key=args.key) half_spread = args.spread / 2 / 100 # e.g. 6c spread → 0.03 size_raw = int(args.size * PRICE_SCALE) # Track state current_market_id = "" bid_order_id = None # BUY YES ask_order_id = None # SELL YES last_mid = 0.0 cycles = 0 total_pnl = 0.0 def cleanup(*_): print("\n[MM] Shutting down — cancelling all orders...") try: n = client.cancel_all() print(f"[MM] Cancelled {n} orders") except Exception as e: print(f"[MM] Cancel error: {e}") sys.exit(0) signal.signal(signal.SIGINT, cleanup) print(f"[MM] PolyTrue MM started") print(f"[MM] Wallet: {args.wallet}") print(f"[MM] Spread: {args.spread}c") print(f"[MM] Size: ${args.size}/side") print(f"[MM] Backend: {args.url}") print() while True: try: # Get market state mkt = client.get_market() market_id = mkt.get("marketId", "") btc_price = mkt.get("btcPrice", 0) strike = mkt.get("strikePrice", 0) secs = mkt.get("secondsRemaining", 0) if not market_id or btc_price <= 0: time.sleep(2) continue # Market rotation if market_id != current_market_id: if current_market_id: print(f"\n[MM] Market rotated → {market_id[:16]}...") client.cancel_all() bid_order_id = None ask_order_id = None current_market_id = market_id print(f"[MM] Market: {market_id[:16]}... | Strike: ${strike:,.2f}") # Don't quote in final 15 seconds if secs < 15: if bid_order_id or ask_order_id: print(f"[MM] Final {secs}s — pulling quotes") client.cancel_all() bid_order_id = None ask_order_id = None time.sleep(1) continue # Calculate fair value mid = calc_probability(btc_price, strike, secs) # Check if quotes need updating (>1c move) if abs(mid - last_mid) < 0.01 and bid_order_id and ask_order_id: # Check for fills orders = client.get_my_orders() order_ids = {o["id"] for o in orders} bid_filled = bid_order_id not in order_ids ask_filled = ask_order_id not in order_ids if bid_filled and ask_filled: cycles += 1 pnl = args.spread / 100 # earned the spread total_pnl += pnl print(f"[MM] CYCLE #{cycles} complete! +${pnl:.2f} | Total P&L: ${total_pnl:.2f}") bid_order_id = None ask_order_id = None elif bid_filled: print(f"[MM] BID FILLED (bought YES @ {int((mid - half_spread) * 100)}c)") bid_order_id = None elif ask_filled: print(f"[MM] ASK FILLED (sold YES @ {int((mid + half_spread) * 100)}c)") ask_order_id = None if bid_order_id and ask_order_id: time.sleep(2) continue last_mid = mid bid_price = int(max(0.01, mid - half_spread) * PRICE_SCALE) ask_price = int(min(0.99, mid + half_spread) * PRICE_SCALE) # Cancel old orders if bid_order_id: try: client.cancel_order(bid_order_id) except Exception: pass bid_order_id = None if ask_order_id: try: client.cancel_order(ask_order_id) except Exception: pass ask_order_id = None # Place new quotes # BUY YES (bid) result = client.place_order( side=0, outcome=0, price=bid_price, size=size_raw, ) if result.get("remaining", 0) > 0: bid_order_id = result["orderId"] # SELL YES (ask) result = client.place_order( side=1, outcome=0, price=ask_price, size=size_raw, ) if result.get("remaining", 0) > 0: ask_order_id = result["orderId"] mid_pct = int(mid * 100) bid_c = int(bid_price / PRICE_SCALE * 100) ask_c = int(ask_price / PRICE_SCALE * 100) print( f"[MM] BTC ${btc_price:,.0f} | mid {mid_pct}% | " f"bid {bid_c}c / ask {ask_c}c | {secs}s left" ) except KeyboardInterrupt: cleanup() except Exception as e: print(f"[MM] Error: {e}") time.sleep(2) if __name__ == "__main__": main()